Oh dear I have to try hard to stop myself from a huge rant here - and I most likely won't succeed. My personal feeling about Silverlight, in a nutshell, is that yes, it does pose a thread to Adobe and will undoubtedly eat into the Flash Platform's market share (and I say Flash Platform because it's no longer just Flash, it's Flex, it's Apollo, it's Flash Media Server plus a few things we undoubtedly don't yet know about).
I read Ted's blog regularly and I felt that his MS bashing was over the top - yet he does make some valid points. But then on the other hand I also come across blogs like that of Kurt Shintaku, a Microsoft employee who tells us a similar story but from an MS perspective and notes the 'Top 10 reasons why MS Silverlight can succeed' (notice the use of the word can, not will...). What winds me up about this post is the huge amount of misinformation Kurt spreads about Flash (and he doesn't even mention Flex - very convenient) while proclaiming under point 1 that 'It's not about "copying Flash".

Hmm but it smells like Flash, it feels like Flash, it's called Silverlight (wtf?) - it sounds like a rip off to me. MS, have the guts to just say it - SPELL IT OUT! 'Yes, we're trying to copy what the Flash Platform does best'. There. Fine. But no, oh it's not about Flash no no, yet here are 10 points of which seven mention Flash - but of course it's not about Flash... and while I may be biased in this discussion, there are other who agree with me.
That aside, there's so much misinformation in this article that I don't know where to start. ..
DRM: did Kurt read Adobe's press releases? Flash video WILL have DRM (not that I think it needs it), just like Silverlight will have DRM (just better is my guess because Adobe will focus on end users AS WELL AS content owners and not just the latter). And he goes on to state how poor Flash video's content protection is and that it can be recorded - well I have some news for Kurt: Windows Media DRM has it's issues (like this one and this one - need any more?). Moreover all the Flash video sites he links to make no effort in stopping users from discovering the URL of the FLV... they are progressively available files on a public URL, no surprise then that you can download them!

There's more: Silverlight apparently is 'a product that's squarely focused on media quality, media tools, and media needs'. Sounds great (yet I'm not sure what it means exactly). Anyone taken the end users into account?

Which leads me on to the next point: cost. Yeah, we all know that Flash Media Server isn't cheap but what about the cost of progressively served FLV video? Or the fact that Flash Media Server delivers a ton more than just streaming video? Does YouTube stream its FLV files? Does Google video? I bet they don't even run Windows web servers (no, I haven't checked) because they'd cost too much! So please, don't throw with stones etc etc...

Quality: are users really waiting for HD? I'm not sure they are. And please don't assume that Adobe is standing still, by time Silverlight has any kind of traction the Flash video platform will also have moved on. New codecs anyone?

I could go on as there's at least 10 other points about Flash that are plain wrong.

I probably know about as much about Silverlight as Kurt knows about the Flash Platform (which apparently doesn't support overlays on top of video) so I will keep stumm on what this technology is good at or not. But I do know Flash and this sort of misinformation really gets me. Only time will tell. In the meantime Kurt should probably keep telling himself that 'Flash is just a necessary evil'. With this attitude Silverlight should better watch out not to become an unnecessary evil...
Right now I just feel hostile towards Silverlight and I'm not sure why. Maybe it's because of the attitude that Microsoft shows time and time again, trying badly to be hip and to rip off ideas but not admitting to it (check the features if you don't believe me). And how badly do they really care about cross platform support? I'm not so convinced when I look at their history - IE on Mac, WMP on Mac... Next they'll probably tell us that the Zune wasn't meant to be an iPod competitor! 'Late to market' somehow rings in my ears.
Feel free to leave comments (such as 'you're only scared of Silverlight because it does so many things that Flash can't do like... errm one sec, lemme see...').
I knew it would turn into a rant...